Green Hydrogen Momentum Slows: StormGeo Lowers Demand Forecast in Long-Term Outlook

New analysis by StormGeo shows green hydrogen remains uncompetitive without subsidies, reshaping expectations for electricity demand in the Nordics.

Oslo, Norway, 15.05.2025 - Green hydrogen is unlikely to fulfill earlier expectations as a major driver of electricity demand in the Nordics, according to StormGeo. In its latest Spring 2025 Long-Term Market Outlook, StormGeo outlines a substantial downward revision in demand projections, citing persistent cost barriers and weak market incentives.

StormGeo now forecasts that by 2050, only 50 TWh of electricity will be allocated to green hydrogen production – significantly below previous estimates.

“Green hydrogen remains a cornerstone of the energy transition in theory, but in practice, the economics still don’t add up,” Sigbjørn Seland, Chief Analyst at StormGeo, said. “Without subsidies or strict mandates, it’s difficult to see large-scale demand materializing.” 

Key Insights

• Green hydrogen’s future role is limited: The long-term contribution of green hydrogen to Nordic electricity demand is now expected to remain relatively modest, reflecting both economic constraints and the uncertain outlook for industrial-scale adoption.
• Cost remains a key barrier: Even in optimistic scenarios with very low electricity prices, the levelized cost of producing green hydrogen using PEMEL technology exceeds €100 per MWh.
• Demand outlook revised downward: Industrial demand for green hydrogen – particularly from fossil-free steel projects – is unlikely to scale without subsidies, reducing expected electricity consumption in the coming decades.
• Implications for energy markets: With moderated hydrogen demand, total electricity consumption growth in the Nordic region is expected to be driven primarily by transport electrification and data center expansion.
• Impact on production planning: A reduced hydrogen uptake could further entrench the current Nordic electricity production surplus – currently near 60 TWh – reducing incentives for significant new capacity investments.

StormGeo’s base scenario assumes limited uptake of large-scale hydrogen projects like HYBRIT, H2 Green Steel, and SSAB, pending final investment decisions and subsidy frameworks. Without these developments, demand forecasts for industrial electrolysis are expected to remain modest.

About StormGeo
StormGeo is a leading technology provider enabling weather-sensitive companies to navigate operational challenges in dynamic environments and volatile markets. With nature and weather intelligence at its core, StormGeo’s technological innovations and human expertise transform data into actions that safeguard people, industries, and nature for a sustainable future. With a global presence and 24/7/365 operations, StormGeo’s industry experts, analysts, and technologists offer timely and actionable insight that empowers our clients’ decision-making. StormGeo is part of Alfa Laval. 

Media Contacts

Sigbjørn Seland
Chief Analyst, StormGeo
sigbjorn.seland@stormgeo.com

Rune Reiakvam
Brand and Communications Manager, StormGeo
rune.reiakvam@stormgeo.com