Onshore Wind and Solar Investments to Support Nordic Power Surplus as Prices Seen Higher, According to StormGeo

Latest regional energy market analysis raises medium-term price forecast despite lower electricity demand on reduced use of green hydrogen

Oslo, Norway, 29.10.2026 – StormGeo forecasts a persistent Nordic net power surplus – contrary to expectations of a near-term deficit – due to an unexpected drop-off in electricity demand for hydrogen and green steel in the region, according to its latest Nordic Long-Term Power Market Outlook 2026 to 2055.

The energy market analytics provider is also raising its medium-term power-price outlook towards 2030, which could support renewed onshore wind and solar development.

"We expect the Nordics to remain a net power surplus region over both the medium and long term. This reflects the combined effect of our demand-and-supply outlook,” says Sigbjørn Seland, Chief Analyst at StormGeo.

He points out that this runs counter to the prevalent market view that strong regional electricity demand growth will erode today’s power surplus and push the region into deficit within a few years.

Shift in green hydrogen demand

The most unexpected finding in the latest outlook is a reduction in the long-term electricity demand forecast for the Nordic region, according to Seland.

The main reason is that StormGeo now expects green steel projects to use much less electricity to produce hydrogen. “Rising costs at Sweden’s Stegra project have led us to lower our forecast for future demand,” he says.

StormGeo’s forecast for hydrogen-related demand in 2055 has fallen from approximately 50 TWh to 15 TWh, which more than offsets the growth in demand from data centers.

“This is timely because it highlights how quickly the outlook for major industrial projects can change, even as data centers are emerging as a robust source of new demand,” Seland says.

Tapping into wind potential

The biggest shift in the current outlook versus the previous spring edition is that the medium-term price prognosis towards 2030 has been revised upwards by the company’s Energy Analytics team.

This is mainly driven by markedly higher natural gas prices that are also set to lift alternative hydropower values. The raised price forecast is further supported by lower wind output than previously forecasted over the coming years and stronger anticipated growth in data center consumption amid expansion of AI.

Although wind generation has fallen short of modelled volumes, StormGeo believes onshore wind and solar investment will regain momentum to impact the supply side, underpinned by the Nordic region’s “substantial untapped potential for onshore wind”.

Need to assess project economics

Uncertain prospects for hydrogen-related consumption may release grid capacity due to withdrawn projects that can open up opportunities for other users, Seland points out.

The outlook is an important tool for a range of participants with long-term exposure to the Nordic power market – from energy-intensive industrial consumers to investors and developers considering new generation, consumption or flexibility assets, including battery storage.

Seland says the Nordics remain attractive for large consumers over the longer term because of relatively stable framework conditions and comparatively low power prices, even with the higher medium-term price forecast.

“For investors and developers, the outlook underscores the need to assess technology, location and timing, including how local price patterns and development of renewable generation can affect potential investment returns and project economics,” Seland concludes.

StormGeo’s Power Market Outlook delivers insights into the long-term evolution of energy markets across the Nordics and interconnected markets. The analyses are used by utilities, investors, and traders to reveal the fundamentals, risks, and opportunities shaping the energy transition through 2055.

About StormGeo
StormGeo is a leading technology provider enabling weather-sensitive companies to navigate operational challenges in dynamic environments and volatile markets. With nature and weather intelligence at its core, StormGeo’s technological innovations and human expertise transform data into actions that safeguard people, industries, and nature for a sustainable future. With a global presence and 24/7/365 operations, StormGeo’s industry experts, analysts, and technologists offer timely and actionable insight that empowers our clients’ decision-making. StormGeo is part of Alfa Laval.

Media Contact

Rune Reiakvam
Head of Brand and Communications, StormGeo
rune.reiakvam@stormgeo.com